Experts and fans of mma alike like to prentend they know who's who and what's what. They think they know who's the predator and the prey. Then people will often side on predictions regarding fighters of a certain style. I think those who do their homework will often know what's going to take place come fight night, but even they know surprises await just around the corner.
A great example of this would be the raw heavyweight Matt Mitrione. He's spent his entire career within the UFC and got his start in pro mma with the ultimate fighter tv show. Only one other fighter on that season didn't have any fights and he ended up losing his first bout. Mitrione was the last first round fight and he was scheduled to fight Scott Junk, a guy with kickboxing experience and one bout in the UFC. No one would've thought Mitrione stood a chance and yet he clearly outstruck Junk to get a decision. Although he ended up losing his second round match via submission he was given a chance to fight for a spot in the ufc on the finale against Marcus Jones who had two fights on the show.
Considering Jones was a giant jiu jitsu guy people favored him, but his one loss on the show had come by knockout and considering Mitrione's previous fight people gave him a slight chance of victory. Mitrione had stated the reason he tapped out to the guillotine was because he'd never been caught in a submission until then, so he freaked out and tapped. In the fight, Jones took Mitrione down at will and applied a number of submissions, but Mitrione's supposed liability was no more and he defended every single attempt until knocking Jones out early in the second round.
Since then, Mitrione has gone 4-0 and improved with every fight. To outsiders it probably looks like Mitrione came off the street and used his athletic talent to get him through, but to those in the know he actually knew quite a bit before even becoming a serious fighter. In college he had dabbled in shotokan karate and also won some tough man contests in his earlier years.
The man had a solid chin going into the game and a passing knowledge of affective striking. He takes that, builds upon it and adds grappling/ground game essentials for his future dances with the men make it their business to play rough. Everyone calls him a rookie, but he's a veteran even though his skills don't match up to the champs just yet. Some fighters don't even last two fights in the hard, cutthroat world of the UFC and for Mitrione to last this long is truly impressive.
Fast forward, or move parallel and you'll find Ramsey Nijem from the 13th season of the Ultimate Fighter and a similar situation happens although for completely different reasons. Nijem made no bones about telling his housemates he loves Glee and proceeded to strip for them while not hiding his painted toenails. It's fair to say the entire house wrote him off as a goofball weirdo who wouldn't last very long in the competition. What would you know, but he comes in and not only wins in his first two fights.
